Bill Belichick’s impact on the Patriots, UNC, and J&J/Kenvue
Gary A. Williams
wRatings Founder & CEO
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Whether in sports or business, the most difficult part of decision-making is when to pull the trigger on what your convictions, intuition, and analysis tell you to do . . . when everyone else is losing their head.
In a 2009 regular season game against the Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick decided to go for it on fourth-and-2 from their own 28-yard line with just two minutes to go in the game. They got one yard, and ending up losing the game after Peyton Manning threw a touchdown pass to win 35-34.
Did Belichick make the right call? Since they lost, most armchair coaches say he did not. Yet, the rational data says not so fast, my friend.
Business executives face the same dilemma in decision-making every day, whether it’s a new hire, new program, process change, or sales campaign. When it comes to pulling the trigger on that investment, do you have the will to make the decision right sitting in front of you?
Given the demise of Blackberry, Blockbuster, Circuit City, Compaq, Kodak, Saturn, and so many others, executives that fail to make decisions often end up with the most negative consequences. Psychologists call it errors of omission (not taking action) or commission (taking action). Think of it this way. If you continue to support the status quo yet others are making changes to progress, you are actually moving backwards.
In May 2023, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) got rid of Band-Aids, Neutrogena, and Tylenol. That just sounds ludicrous, right? Well, actually not. The customer and financial metrics support it, even when emotionally it doesn’t appear to make sense.
As the popularity of the Moneyball approach grows, coaches and executives are using analytics to more accurately measure risk-reward and make increasingly tough decisions. The ability to attempt and convert on fourth downs in the NFL is a prime example.
Tough Decisions: Going for It on Fourth Down
You’re an NFL head coach and it’s fourth-and-2 from the goal line early in the game. Do you kick a field goal, or go for the touchdown? Almost all coaches would take the near certain 3 points and kick the field goal. Yet, analytics say from that distance, you’ll be successful 3 out of 7 times, assuring you the same number of expected points on average.
So why don’t more coaches go for it? Actually, they are, and they are converting in even higher percentages than ever before. In the chart below showing fourth down conversions since 2000, the number of attempts started increasing in 2018 along with their conversion rates at nearly 55.7%. NFL Teams recorded their highest conversion year yet at 56.8%.
Why is this happening? NFL head coaches are incorporating analytics into more and more game management decisions – and it’s paying off. Back in 2005, economist David Romer wrote a paper on football analytics called “Do Firms Maximize, Evidence from Professional Football.” The paper spotlights the data above and makes a compelling case that coaches prioritize job security over their team’s chances to win games.
Ironically, an NFL head coach’s job security in 2025 requires coaches to make more risky, tough decisions.
Bill Belichick is well-known for his attention to detail and willingness to embrace new ideas but says “analytics are really not his thing.” But just take a look at all his Moneyball-style moves, keeping in mind that at the heart of Moneyball is to find inefficiencies in your market to exploit them.
He found undervalued players like Wes Walker and made him into an outstanding slot receiver. He created a rare two tight end offensive package in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez to outsmart his opponents. The Patriots often traded down to get free draft picks further down in the NFL draft. That’s Moneyball.
College football is as much about recruiting as it is game management. And Belichick excelled at both in the NFL. With the new NCAA requirement to pay athletes, coaches with NFL experience possess an advantage over their college only peers. Belichick built his UNC Chapel Hill staff with former NFL coaches. The NFL is an advertising media king, and while Belichick is far from a media fan, he is highly quotable and a media favorite. He can also stir up a following with his young girlfriend.
Belichick’s greatest impact will likely be on the field when it comes to making those fourth-and-2 decisions. He’s been battle tested while in the NFL – and came out winning eight Super Bowls (six as head coach with NE Patriots, two assistant coach with NY Giants). Tough decisions have made him successful. The status quo has no spot in the Bill Belichick playbook.
Tough Decisions: Letting Go of Great Brands
Fifteen priority brands, including Aveeno, Band-Aid, Nicorette, Listerine, Tylenol, and Zyrtec. What executive team in their right mind would sell off those wildly popular consumer brands? The team at Johnson & Johnson did just that, announcing their decision in November 2021.
J&J CEO Alex Gorsky said the split would enable faster expansion for both businesses with greater focus on their respective markets. Today, J&J focuses on its higher margin, more innovative businesses in pharmaceutical and medical devices. The spinoff, Kenvue (NYSE: KVUE), holds all of those well-known consumer brands listed above and many more.
The lesser known issue is that customer value from those brands was dropping (see chart). The average Value Gap, measured by customer expectations minus company performance, increased from 0.46 at the start of 2020 to 1.22 by the end of 2023 (Value Gaps are on a 1 to 10 scale). Decreasing customer value means less/slower growth in revenue, gross profits, and gross margins.
The status quo needed to be disrupted, and spinning off Kenvue has helped the brands with customers considerably. At the end of 2025-Q1, customers view Kenvue brands as only 0.64 points below their expectations. Organic sales for the quarter remain a -1.2%, but are likely to improve as customer value kicks in.
Kenvue management has been smart to reduce its portfolio and sell off businesses (~20 in past ten years). They are increasing their digital investments to help drive more e-commerce sales, and are improving their overall supply chain efficiencies to increase product availability.
Analyzing what contributes to revenue growth the most since 2022 (see chart), customer ability to select brands is driving 10% of revenue. The remaining two key areas to customers is their brand Trust and Creativity, driving 46% and 44%, respectively.
Our customer data shows that Trust is driving customer willingness to pay a premium for Kenvue brands. Even more impressive is how customers feel a relationship with those Kenvue brands. For example, similar to FedEx, Google, and Xerox, the Band-Aid brand defines its category name.
The easy decision for J&J management would have been to maintain the status quo and not launch them into an IPO. Similar to Belichicks’ fourth-and-2 decision to go for it against the Colts, the initial reaction was surprise along with some disagreement.
Yet, tough decisions have a way of paying off over time. Belichick went on to win three more Super Bowls as a head coach, to go with his three previous ones.
Move Away from the Status Quo
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